About Some Results of Turkey’s Stay in the EU Custom Union (1996–2021): The Origin of the Paradox

Abstract

The article examines the change in the nature of bilateral trade between the EU and Turkey during the period of its stay in the Customs Union of European states, that is, from 1996 to the present. In the early years, a sharp aggravation of the deficit nature of trade for Turkey was expected. It is not surprising that the imbalance has softened somewhat in the subsequent period due to Turkey's gradual adaptation to new conditions and the effective use of new import opportunities not only to saturate the consumer market, but also for technological renewal of production. What looks paradoxical in many ways is the bringing of bilateral trade in the last few years to a balanced state and even some surplus in favor of Turkey. The change in the nature of bilateral trade, apparently, was the result of long-term factors. Firstly, there has been an "ennobling" of Turkish exports, understood in this case as a certain increase in the level of its manufacturability, although while maintaining a low share of the actual high-tech goods. Mobility is also important not only for Turkish exporters, but also for Turkey's European partners, who are very willing to take into account the new opportunities of Turkish partners in their import strategy. Secondly, the expansion of the EU due to the entry of economically weaker new members, close to the level of development of Turkey or even lagging behind it, trade with which is mainly surplus for the Turkish side. At the same time, Turkey's trade with the EU-15 countries, as before, remains scarce.

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